Analysts from Standard & Poor’s predicted this week that while personal auto results are starting to stabilize, the continued push for rate in 2024 will set the stage for more faceoffs between regulators and insurers.
Tim Zawacki, principal insurance analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and John Iten, senior analyst and P/C sector lead for S&P Global Ratings, offered a current snapshot of results for all segments of the property/casualty insurance industry—and a forecast for next year during S&P’s webinar, “IN/sights: Outlook and Trends for U.S. Insurers—What to Expect in 2024 and Beyond.”
For the most part, Zawacki and Iten repeated information they provided earlier this year about the gap between a profitable commercial lines market and a lagging personal lines segment, while noting that a lower level of inflation is pushing personal auto loss costs down—a trend they are hopeful will continue to improve underwriting results in 2024. (See related articles: Improved Auto Insurance Results Coming—But Not Soon Enough: S&P GMI | Wait ‘Til Next Year: Auto Profit Unlikely to Return in ’23, S&P Says)
But when Moderator Lynn Bachstetter, global head of cross-product market development for S&P GMI, asked directly what they believe will be the biggest impact P/C insurers will face next year, Zawacki responded, “The interplay between the industry and the regulatory community is going to be interesting.”
“I think we will see results get better. I think we will also continue to see rate increases. And I think the juxtaposition of those two things at some point is likely to generate conflict,” he explained. “Given the politics that tend to be involved in such things, that’s going to become a stickier type of thing for the industry to navigate next year,” he said.
“If we don’t get price increases approved th