The era of massive state budget surpluses in Texas could be coming to an end.

As the last of the federal government’s COVID-19 emergency funds are spent and sales tax revenues return to historic averages after a large spike, budget analysts say state lawmakers will have far less wiggle room when it comes to funding their spending priorities.

“I don’t think we’re in any kind of crisis, but I think the days of big budget surpluses are probably over,” said Bill King, a fellow in public finance for Rice University’s Baker Institute of Public Policy. “We’re going to be very careful how we spend money.”

In addition to federal pandemic aid, sales tax revenues from inflation and a post-lockdown economic rebound led to …

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