A working paper from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office recently estimated the distribution of changes in gross domestic product in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature.
And it could be bad, really bad—or hopefully not so bad, if things go better than expected.
The CBO performed a meta-analysis of the literature on the effects of climate change on GDP and combined those effects with global temperature distributions forecast for the year 2100.
The CBO projects that future temperature increases on average will cause the GDP to be 4% lower in 2100 than it would have been if temperatures remained unchanged after 2024.
Because “considerable uncertainty surrounds the long-run effects